On the night of March 6, 2026, residents of Baba Dogo, a small settlement along the Mathare River, watched the water rise.
It crept up the riverbanks. It washed over the footbridges people use every day. As the night went on, floodwater poured into the lowest homes in the neighborhood.
Florence Owilo climbed to her rooftop with her housemates. They passed small children up to each other, one by one, until everyone was safe on the corrugated metal sheets above the flood.
This scene has happened before in Mathare. It will likely happen again. That is the real story behind Nairobi’s floods. It is not just about rain. It is about who gets hit, and who gets left to rebuild alone.
The Numbers Behind the Headlines
In early March 2026, flash floods tore through Nairobi after heavy overnight rain.
Police said 23 people died in the city that night alone, mostly from drowning or electrocution from damaged power lines.
By the next day, roughly 3,500 households across Nairobi had been affected. Within a week, the death toll across Kenya climbed past 40, and more than 4,800 people had been displaced nationwide.
This was described as the heaviest flooding Nairobi had seen since 2024. That earlier disaster remains the benchmark for scale.
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The April to May 2024 floods killed close to 300 people across Kenya. They displaced tens of thousands of households in Nairobi alone.
Roads, bridges, and rail lines across the country suffered roughly $300 million in damage that year. Every rainy season since has tested whether anything actually changed.
Why Informal Settlements Take the Hardest Hit
Nairobi’s informal settlements cover only about 5 percent of the city’s residential land. Yet they house roughly half of Nairobi’s population. That single fact explains most of what follows.
Places like Mathare, Mukuru, and Kibra sit close to rivers. Homes are built from tin and timber, packed tightly together on low ground.
There is little formal drainage. Sewer lines are minimal or nonexistent. When rivers rise, there is nowhere for the water to go except through people’s houses.
Wealthier neighborhoods sit on higher ground, with paved roads and working storm drains. They flood too, sometimes badly. But they rarely see the loss of life or total destruction that hits the slums.
The Inequality Nobody Wants to Say Out Loud
Here is the part that makes residents angry. Wealthier riparian neighborhoods stay mostly untouched. Poorer riparian communities get flooded first, and hit hardest. Then, in many cases, they get evicted afterward.
One Mathare resident put it simply to a journalist. He said if thousands of people suddenly became homeless in an upscale neighborhood, the government would respond immediately. In the slums, he said, the response is neglect.
Demolitions Without a Plan
After floods hit, the government has repeatedly ordered demolitions along riverbanks in Mathare, Mukuru, and Kariobangi.
The stated reason is public safety and reclaiming riparian land. But these demolitions often happen with no relocation plan and little warning.
The Mathare Social Justice Centre, a local advocacy group, has pushed back hard on this approach.
Their researchers argue that flood victims are being punished twice. First by the water, then by bulldozers.
They have called for the government to work with residents on real housing solutions instead of clearing land and leaving people with nowhere to go.
The Crisis Few People Talk About
Floods bring a second crisis that gets far less attention. Gender based violence rises sharply in the aftermath.
Research by the Mathare Social Justice Centre found that one in five women in the community had directly experienced or witnessed gender based violence following floods and evictions. Sixty percent of people surveyed believed such violence was increasing.
Researchers linked this rise to several factors. Displacement pushed families into crowded, unsafe temporary shelters.
Economic stress grew as people lost work and income. Sanitation facilities were destroyed, forcing women to walk further, often at night, to relieve themselves.
Reporting remains low because of stigma and weak support at police stations.
What Is Supposed to Be Happening
The government has launched the Nairobi River Basin Regeneration Programme, a large infrastructure effort backed by roughly 50 billion Kenyan shillings.
It promises a 60 kilometer sewer line, dredging and widening of the Nairobi, Ngong, and Mathare rivers, and 50,000 units of affordable housing along the riverbanks.
Progress has been mixed. Some sewer construction and river clearing work is underway.
But residents and landowners in areas like Kangemi and Dagoretti have raised concerns about inadequate consultation and the threat of displacement without due process.
Parliament is reviewing these concerns. For now, most residents in the settlements have seen demolitions arrive faster than housing.
What Residents Can Do Each Rainy Season
While systems change slowly, a few practical steps can help protect lives right now.
Save the Kenya Red Cross emergency number, 1199, and keep it accessible on your phone.
Follow Kenya Meteorological Department alerts before and during the rainy season. If you live near a river, identify higher ground nearby in advance, and agree on a family meeting point.
Keep important documents in a waterproof bag. If GBV support is needed, local organizations like the Mathare Social Justice Centre run help desks in affected communities.
None of this fixes the drainage system or stops the next flood. But it can help a family get through the next one alive.
If you are experiencing gender based violence or need support after a flood, contact the Kenya Red Cross on 1199, or reach out to a local community justice center for help.
