By Jemosop Faith
Zambia, a landlocked nation powered by the mighty Zambezi River, is in the dark. The Kariba Dam, which supplies a third of Zambia’s electricity, is nearly dry, crippled by a drought worsened by climate change.
Power outages lasting up to 21 hours daily have plunged businesses, hospitals, and homes into chaos. Yet, a solar boom is emerging as a lifeline. Can Zambia’s shift to Africa renewables solve its hydropower crisis, or is it too little, too late? Let’s explore.
How Is Climate Change Affecting Zambia’s Hydropower Capacity?
Zambia’s Zambia electricity grid is bleeding. Hydropower accounts for 83% of its 2,800 MW installed capacity, but climate change has slashed output to 1,040 MW. The 2024 El Niño-induced drought, the worst in a century, has left Lake Kariba at 7.41% of usable storage, down from 31.16% in 2023.
Kariba’s 1,080 MW plant now produces just 98 MW, teetering on shutdown. Other plants, like Kafue Gorge (372 MW vs. 990 MW capacity) and Itezhi-Tezhi (34 MW vs. 120 MW), are also faltering.
Climate models project a 3% drop in hydropower capacity by 2099, with drier conditions in southern Africa worsening water scarcity. Zambia’s heavy reliance on hydropower, once a strength, is now its Achilles’ heel.
Why Is Zambia Struggling with Rising Energy Prices and Blackouts?
The hydropower crisis has triggered an economic spiral. Peak demand of 2,400 MW exceeds supply, forcing 17-hour daily blackouts. Businesses like Emmanuel Simukoko’s grocery in Lusaka lose revenue, while hospitals risk lives due to unstable power.
Zambia’s debt, over $13 billion, limits imports, with suppliers demanding upfront payments. Charcoal use has surged, worsening deforestation and emissions. Energy prices have spiked, with solar lamps sales up 540% as households seek alternatives.
Copper mining, consuming 51% of power, faces disruptions, threatening Zambia’s top export. The crisis exposes decades of underinvestment in diverse energy sources.
Can Solar Energy Overcome the Challenges of a Drying Grid?
Zambia’s solar boom offers hope. With 2,000–3,000 hours of annual sunshine, Zambia has vast solar potential, yet only 89 MW is installed. Projects like the 47.5 MW Bangweulu and 34 MW Ngonye solar plants prove viability.
A $2 billion deal with UAE’s Masdar aims for 2,000 MW, while SkyPower Global’s 1,000 MW agreement targets 4 million households. Zambia’s Ministry of Energy slashed solar approval times to 48 hours, spurring investment.
Solar mini-grids, like Finecop’s in Eastern Province, power rural farms, boosting yields. Yet, challenges persist: solar contributes just 3% of the grid, and high battery costs deter adoption. Only 43% of Zambians have grid access, with rural areas at 14.5%. Scaling solar needs $25 billion in climate finance.
How Does Zambia’s Energy Crisis Highlight the Urgent Need for Renewables?
Zambia’s plight underscores the fragility of climate energy systems. Only 42% of Zambians are grid-connected, and 9.8 million faced food insecurity in 2024 due to drought. Hydropower’s 80% dominance leaves Zambia vulnerable, as droughts become more frequent.
ZESCO’s load-shedding disrupts education and healthcare, with schools rationing water. Africa’s untapped solar potential could power millions, yet solar and wind lag at 3% continent-wide. Zambia’s pivot to solar, including floating panels on Lake Kariba, shows renewables’ urgency.
Kenya’s shift to 90% renewables after 1990s droughts offers a model. Zambia’s crisis is a clarion call for Africa renewables to replace vulnerable systems.
Zambia’s energy shift offers critical lessons. First, over-reliance on hydropower is risky; diversification, as Kenya did with geothermal and solar, builds resilience. Second, policy reforms, like Zambia’s fast-tracked solar approvals, attract investment.
Third, mini-grids empower rural areas, as seen with Zambia’s Presidential 1000 Mini-Grid Initiative. Fourth, coal expansion, like Zambia’s new plants, undermines climate goals; renewables are cheaper long-term. Finally, climate finance is vital; Zambia’s $2 billion Masdar deal shows partnerships work. Africa’s 600 million without electricity need these strategies to leapfrog fossil fuels.
Zambia’s hydropower crisis is a wake-up call. The solar boom, from 94 MW CEC plants to SolarAid’s rural lamps, lights a path forward. But scaling requires billions, policy resolve, and global support. Zambia can lead Africa’s renewable revolution, proving that even in crisis, the sun shines hope. Will it seize this moment?
