The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed it: El Niño is returning. For Kenyans who lived through the floods of 2023 to 2024, those three words carry real weight.
Here is everything you need to know: what El Niño actually is, what it has done to Kenya before, and what you can do to prepare.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise significantly above average, typically by 0.5°C or more.
This warming disrupts normal atmospheric circulation patterns across the globe, altering rainfall and temperature in often dramatic ways.
El Niño is part of a larger cycle called ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation). The opposite phase, La Niña, brings cooler Pacific waters and its own set of climate disruptions.
On average, a full El Niño to La Niña cycle occurs every two to seven years, though climate scientists warn this frequency may be increasing.
How Does El Niño Affect Kenya?
Kenya’s climate response to El Niño is not uniform. Geography matters enormously.
The short rains (October to December): During El Niño years, Kenya typically receives well-above-average rainfall during the October-to-December short rains season. This is when the most destructive flooding historically occurs, particularly in the semi-arid and arid north and northeast.
The long rains (March to May): El Niño’s effect on the March to May long rains is less predictable and varies by region. Coastal and eastern areas may receive above-normal rainfall, while some interior regions may see disruption.
The aftermath: Kenya regularly experiences a deadly pattern called climate whiplash, where years of intense drought are followed by sudden, extreme flooding.
When drought hardens the soil and kills vegetation, the ground loses its ability to absorb water. A rainstorm that would be manageable under normal conditions becomes catastrophic.
What Happened During the Last El Niño (2023 to 2024)?
The El Niño event that began in October 2023 was Kenya’s most destructive in recent memory. An El Niño-enhanced short rain season delivered one of the heaviest rainfall periods on record, followed by exceptionally heavy long rains from March to May 2024.
The results were devastating: at least 245 people died, over 78,000 households were affected, 46,000 households were displaced, and the floods spread across 42 of Kenya’s 47 counties.
More than 170,000 hectares of farmland were damaged, and tens of thousands of livestock were lost. Scientists described the destruction as a lethal combination of man-made climate change and the cyclical El Niño weather pattern.
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A critical finding from that event: the prolonged drought that preceded the floods had left soils hardened and unable to absorb water, turning what might have been manageable rains into flash floods and landslides.
Why Is Kenya So Vulnerable?
Despite contributing less than 0.1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, Kenya sits in one of the world’s most climate-sensitive regions.
Over 80% of its landmass is arid or semi-arid, and its economy remains heavily agricultural, making extreme weather directly and immediately destructive to livelihoods.
Climate scientists also warn that El Niño could become a regular occurrence every two to five years by mid-century, compounding long-term vulnerability.
How to Prepare: Practical Steps
For households and communities:
- Stay informed. Follow the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) for official seasonal forecasts. Sign up for early warning SMS alerts if available in your area.
- Assess your flood risk. If you live near a river, seasonal flood zone, or informal settlement with poor drainage, have a plan for temporary relocation.
- Secure food and water supplies. Stock dry goods and water for at least two weeks in flood-vulnerable areas.
- Protect your documents. Keep national IDs, title deeds, and essential documents in a waterproof container or store digital copies securely.
For farmers:
- Plant early. If above-average rains are forecast, planting windows can shift. Consult the Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO) for region-specific advice.
- Consider drought-tolerant and flood-resilient crop varieties, especially in semi-arid zones that may oscillate between extremes.
- Protect livestock. Identify elevated ground for livestock shelter during flooding seasons.
For businesses:
- Review insurance coverage. Flood and climate event insurance products are increasingly available through Kenyan insurtech providers.
- Assess supply chain risks. El Niño can damage roads, disrupt logistics, and raise commodity prices. Diversify suppliers and build inventory buffers where feasible.
El Niño is a natural force that humans cannot stop. But with adequate preparation, early warning, and smart planning, its worst impacts can be significantly reduced. Kenya has learned hard lessons, and the goal now is to act on them before the next event arrives.
Monitor Kenya Meteorological Department forecasts at meteo.go.ke.
